DOUGLAS

BURGDORFF

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The single most important priority now is to insist on a debt write off, not alone because as Citibank's chief economist William Buitar recently argued we are entitled to it for prospectively saving the euro. But also because it would be a sensible incentive for Germany and the troika to hold out to other countries.

foreseeable future. The cost of servicing our debt will suffocate growth. This has to change.

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Third, we face conditionality in any case. We are signed up to a variety of EU agreements that require us to be overseen. We would be as well to get as much as we can for it, including some cheap cash.

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´╗┐Bailout exit will not bring fiscal sovereignty

The burden of sovereign/bank debt of some 200bn, which is well north of 120% of GDP.

It does, however, mark some kind of distancing of Ireland from the calamitous events leading up to the bailout, including the onerous and oppressive terms imposed on the Irish economy not least as a sacrifice for saving the institutions of larger countries.

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Fifth, much good work in reforming closed shops and technocratic regulatory improvements has been undertaken over the last few years, but all at the behest of the troika. With no external oversight this will cease.

The Government has decided to jump without a parachute. Let's hope for all our sakes that there is a nice soft landing. Now Nike Shoes Pink And White where have we heard that before?

The good element is that this signals that the worst of the effects of the noughties credit binge on the macrofinances of the State are truly behind us; that the catastrophic bank guarantee has washed through; and that we are capable of contemplating standing on our own two feet again.

First, we close off options when we do this. Options have value. A major part of the value of an option comes from not exercising it. Determining that we will exit clean removes any chance that we have of a transition. Should the world economic situation worsen and drag up our borrowing costs, should a major bailout of Irish banks be required, should any unforeseen event come to pass that requires us to seek assistance, this will be a new game.

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Sixth, the banks remain, rotting away and poisoning the national flow of funds. Irish SMEs in particular remain under strain.

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Fourth, we have a poor historical record of managing the economy, over decades. Mass emigration is back, removing potential pressure value that in most countries causes revolution and evolution of the political system. With no external stick to beat domestic elites, there is a significant danger they will revert to the bad old ways.

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In or out of the bailout, Ireland is mired in what Nobel prize winning economist and former senior IMF staff member Joseph Nike Shoes

The formal exit means a shift in exchequer funding away from our partners to the markets. The credibility of the NTMA has been perhaps the single institutional success in the whole management of the crisis. NTMA hold cash reserves of some 20bn and this provides a significant buffer. What the markets will be looking for is the credibility of future economic policy. Here, the challenges remain the same:

This means, that Ireland's debt burden is near unsustainable. The cut in interest rates and the extension of some of the debt will not change this. The reason is slow growth. Ireland's economy under the policies of austerity has fallen well short of the growth projections on which the austerity budgets were based.

Ray Kinsella is a professor of banking and financial services, and healthcare at UCD

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Much is being made of the fact that the exit is a "clean break". In fact, the troika will continue its surveillance, and its monitoring and enforcement of our fiscal policy.

The recapitalisation issue. The German finance minister said, on Ireland's recent budget day, that there would be no retrospective recapitalisation of Ireland's bank debt, through the ESM (Europe's rescue fund) or otherwise. And chancellor Angela Merkel's offer of putting a good word in with a German development bank is a, well, it's a poor substitute.

Exit will not mean a recovery of Ireland's fiscal sovereignty. Firstly, the template of further cutbacks into 2014/15 is already set in stone and this will be enforced by the troika. Secondly, the scope for flexibility has been (almost) irredeemably lost as a result of the fiscal compact.

Brian Lucey Government jumps without a parachute

Second, there is the cost of debt. We pay an approximate interest rate of 3% to 3.5% on our existing debt. That is just about the level at which we might now be Nike Shoes With Price

By contrast, continuing to be dependent on our European partners and institutions would reflect the chronic dependency into which the bailout led us in to in the first place.

Finally, it would be sensible for Ireland to seek a standby agreement with the IMF alone. Such agreements are normal and it would mark a real normalisation of Ireland's status.

Neither the troika nor the Government have addressed in any detail the question what has been the cost of the policies of austerity to the people and to the capacity of the country to renew its economy?

We have a poor historical record of managing the economy. Mass emigration is back, removing the potential pressure value that in most countries causes evolution of the political system

The Government's decision to exit the bailout "clean" is a curate's egg.

able to borrow, assuming we can do so. A very large part of the driving down of the interest rates on peripheral country debt is down to the ECB stance. How long will rates stay low? If and when rates rise then so too will the costs. Thus we are likely to see these costs of borrowing of the required 50bn rising above the cost of repayment at present.

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Stiglitz in his recent book called "a lost decade". With Germany opposed to recapitalisation of our banking system and minimal growth, Ireland's debt burden will continue to absorb a significant proportion of exchequer receipts into the Nike White Sneakers Price

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